Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 92¢ · $583 held · ended Nov 24, 2025
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$583.31
$225.92
56.1¢ → 91.6¢
+63% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
3879h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nicoco89 | Noavg 55.1¢ | $337.27 | $560.12 | +$222.85 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
 LinaBell<$100 | Noavg 87.9¢ | $16.59 | $17.3 | +$0.7 | 64% 1197-678 (1875) |
LE leegunner<$100 | Noavg 65.3¢ | $1.88 | $2.64 | +$0.77 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $2.73 | $2.32 | +$2.33 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.66 | $0.92 | -$0.73 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
nicoco89Invested
$337.27
Value
$560.12
PnL
+$222.85
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
LinaBell<$100Invested
$16.59
Value
$17.3
PnL
+$0.7
Record
64%
1197-678 (1875)
Invested
$1.88
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0.77
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$2.73
Value
$2.32
PnL
+$2.33
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$0.92
PnL
-$0.73
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.