Consensus PnL $109K · win rate 60% (631–414, n=1045) · hand-picked wallet · holds 58 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$109.5K
Record
631W / 414L
Win Rate
60.0%
of 1045 settled
Batting Avg
74.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1152
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
44,288
Markets
1,865
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
58 in listed consensus markets · 37 of 58 on the consensus side (64%)- Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by December 31, 2026?No $1.7K · now 96¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections?No $831 · now 98¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?No $821 · now 100¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Will the Republican Party win the OH-10 House seat?Yes $754 · now 69¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will the Democrats win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026?Yes $650 · now 98¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (61% of 23)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $646 · now 56¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (57% of 35)
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $589 · now 12¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (84% of 20)
- Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election?No $560 · now 92¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
1,188 settled consensus markets · held side won 39% at an average entry of 34¢- Elections
+5 pts
side won 43% of 538 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 34% of 167 · avg entry 28¢
ROI +3%
- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 36% of 140 · avg entry 34¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 21% of 14 at an average 31¢ entry (−10 pts against the price), ROI +5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 55%(won 12% of 657)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 44% of 187)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 74% of 144)
- 70¢ and up: 17%(won 94% of 200)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.