Consensus PnL $108K · win rate 61% (782–495, n=1277) · hand-picked wallet · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$108.4K
Record
782W / 495L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 1277 settled
Batting Avg
65.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1109
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
43,738
Markets
2,069
Volume
$3.9M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 19 on the consensus side (74%)- US recession by end of 2026?No $19K · now 95¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (96% of 27)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $3.9K · now 6¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
- Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $2.7K · now 35¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $814 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 10)
- Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $680 · now 2¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 24)
- Will the Democrats win the Colorado Senate race in 2026?Yes $321 · now 100¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027?No $318 · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Yes $260 · now 5¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,586 settled consensus markets · held side won 52% at an average entry of 49¢- Politics
+7 pts
side won 61% of 258 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +5%
- Tech
+9 pts
side won 54% of 87 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +5%
- Mentions
+6 pts
side won 50% of 108 · avg entry 44¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 46% of 93 at an average 54¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 10% of 651)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 44% of 186)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 71% of 147)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 95% of 602)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.