Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.0K
$256.39
83.6¢ → 96.5¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
683h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 elmcap2 | Noavg 79.4¢ | $794.11 | $964 | +$169.89 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 alanhutton | Noavg 89.2¢ | $836.4 | $903.42 | +$67.02 | 68% 335-158 (493) |
PE peepeepooppoop<$100 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $57.6 | $77.12 | +$19.52 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
TP tphhhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $22.68 | $18.64 | -$4.04 | 91% 631-60 (691) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $5 | $9 | +$4 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
elmcap2Invested
$794.11
Value
$964
PnL
+$169.89
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
alanhuttonInvested
$836.4
Value
$903.42
PnL
+$67.02
Record
68%
335-158 (493)
Invested
$57.6
Value
$77.12
PnL
+$19.52
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$22.68
Value
$18.64
PnL
-$4.04
Record
91%
631-60 (691)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$5
Value
$9
PnL
+$4
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.