Consensus PnL $143K · win rate 93% (424–30, n=454) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$142.8K
Record
424W / 30L
Win Rate
93.0%
of 454 settled
Batting Avg
47.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#194
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
7,952
Markets
684
Volume
$8.7M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 7 on the consensus side (57%)- Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes $22K · now 98¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?Yes $833 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $808 · now 16¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 15, 2026?Yes $761 · now 79¢ · in at 98¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes $331 · now 99¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Clippers vs. WarriorsClippers $86 · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (44% of 23)
- Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?Yes $19 · now 4¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
631 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 94¢- Economy
+3 pts
side won 100% of 17 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +1%
- Politics
+7 pts
side won 100% of 12 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 80% of 64 at an average 86¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 13% of 15)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 27% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 76% of 17)
- 70¢ and up: 93%(won 98% of 584)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.