Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 86¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$6.1K
$1.1K
75.9¢ → 86¢
+13% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
64 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SI simpleman | Noavg 82¢ | $82 | $4.5K | +$856.45 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
HO HotDogs | Noavg 45.2¢ | $482.3 | $918.33 | +$436.02 | 94% 442-28 (470) |
 ImJustKenCTR | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $701.59 | $481.57 | -$220.02 | 53% 3037-2716 (5753) |
 StupidMonkeyyy | Noavg 80.9¢ | $138 | $146.67 | +$8.68 | 50% 147-145 (292) |
 randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 57¢ | $2.85 | $0.7 | -$2.15 | 77% 1204-366 (1570) |
Invested
$82
Value
$4.5K
PnL
+$856.45
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
Invested
$482.3
Value
$918.33
PnL
+$436.02
Record
94%
442-28 (470)
ImJustKenCTRInvested
$701.59
Value
$481.57
PnL
-$220.02
Record
53%
3037-2716 (5753)
StupidMonkeyyyInvested
$138
Value
$146.67
PnL
+$8.68
Record
50%
147-145 (292)
randomWalkingShrimpCTR<$100Invested
$2.85
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$2.15
Record
77%
1204-366 (1570)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.