Consensus PnL $1.2M · win rate 28% (416–1095, n=1511) · was PM monthly #800 · holds 142 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2M
Record
416W / 1095L
Win Rate
28.0%
of 1511 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2212
Source
PM monthly #800 + pinned
Trades
570,909
Markets
6,460
Volume
$154.1M
Top consensus positions
142 in listed consensus markets · 92 of 142 on the consensus side (65%)- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?No $140K · now 86¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (41% of 39)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $107K · now 84¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- No one announced as next James Bond?No $69K · now 83¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $27K · now 84¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (72% of 48)
- Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?No $27K · now 93¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $15K · now 5¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (95% of 22)
- Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $14K · now 19¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (75% of 53)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $12K · now 90¢ · in at 90¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,655 settled consensus markets · held side won 38% at an average entry of 33¢- Geopolitics
+15 pts
side won 64% of 217 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +6%
- Finance
+9 pts
side won 56% of 75 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +13%
- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 32% of 251 · avg entry 29¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 62%(won 6% of 1022)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 63% of 95)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 80% of 81)
- 70¢ and up: 28%(won 96% of 457)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.