Consensus PnL $8.1K · win rate 58% (126–91, n=217) · was PM monthly #902 · holds 41 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.1K
Record
126W / 91L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 217 settled
Batting Avg
48.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1301
Source
PM monthly #902
Trades
1,605
Markets
569
Volume
$1.5M
Top consensus positions
41 in listed consensus markets · 24 of 41 on the consensus side (59%)- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Yes $7.1K · now 71¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (69% of 27)
- Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $6.2K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $6.1K · now 90¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (67% of 42)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 86¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (70% of 23)
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?No $2.9K · now 30¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?No $2.2K · now 81¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (50% of 42)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $1.5K · now 71¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 6?Yes $1.5K · now 88¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
Specialties
222 settled consensus markets · held side won 55% at an average entry of 50¢- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 56% of 95 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +1%
- Tech
+7 pts
side won 47% of 15 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +10%
- Mentions
+12 pts
side won 70% of 10 · avg entry 58¢
ROI −2%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 75% of 16 at an average 77¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 10% of 84)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 46% of 28)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 77% of 26)
- 70¢ and up: 38%(won 98% of 84)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.