Will Green Bay Packers win the 2026 NFC North?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 91¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 18, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$4.1K
$265.45
84.8¢ → 91¢
+7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
90h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hyperlong | Noavg 84.4¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$230.79 | 47% 327-375 (702) |
AU auros2 | No | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$80.78 | — 6-0 (6) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 89.1¢ | $262.63 | $229.49 | -$6.15 | 45% 2995-3689 (6684) |
TA takeormakeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24¢ | $61.92 | $27.09 | -$38.7 | 52% 4919-4468 (9387) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $7.72 | $7.98 | -$1.28 | 40% 1583-2383 (3966) |
HyperlongInvested
$2,597.2
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$230.79
Record
47%
327-375 (702)
Invested
$1,109.59
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$80.78
Record
—
6-0 (6)
Invested
$262.63
Value
$229.49
PnL
-$6.15
Record
45%
2995-3689 (6684)
Invested
$61.92
Value
$27.09
PnL
-$38.7
Record
52%
4919-4468 (9387)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$7.72
Value
$7.98
PnL
-$1.28
Record
40%
1583-2383 (3966)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.