Will Harry Kane win the 2026 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 64¢ · $927 held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes64¢No36¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$926.79

Combined PnL

$5.9

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 63.5¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes64%

No37%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$657.77

Total Shares1,036

Combined PnL+$4.64

No1 trader

Total Value$92.31

Total Shares253

Combined PnL+$1.26

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (1 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
StarMaster	Yesavg 61.8¢	$462.05	$476.25	+$14.21	53% 1858-1640 (3498)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100	Yesavg 61.1¢	$170.92	$176.71	+$5.79	53% 6690-5887 (12577)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 61.1¢	$107.9	$112.21	+$4.31
└ No leg	Noavg 34.4¢	$60.72	$64.5	+$1.49
4751346	Yesavg 65.9¢	$122.09	$118.02	-$4.07	72% 1257-483 (1740)
LE leegunnerCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$91.04	$92.31	+$1.26	41% 1281-1829 (3110)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100	Yesavg 69¢	$69	$63.5	-$5.5	56% 15372-11923 (27295)

StarMaster

Yes

Invested

$462.05

Value

$476.25

PnL

+$14.21

Record

53%

1858-1640 (3498)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$170.92

Value

$176.71

PnL

+$5.79

Record

53%

6690-5887 (12577)

Both legs:

Invested

$122.09

Value

$118.02

PnL

-$4.07

Record

72%

1257-483 (1740)

leegunnerCTR<$100

Invested

$91.04

Value

$92.31

PnL

+$1.26

Record

41%

1281-1829 (3110)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100

Yes

Invested

$69

Value

$63.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

56%

15372-11923 (27295)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 64%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Late

99h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (1 on No) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.