Consensus PnL $142K · win rate 78% (892–249, n=1141) · hand-picked wallet · holds 84 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$142.3K
Record
892W / 249L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 1141 settled
Batting Avg
55.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#488
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
67,396
Markets
1,899
Volume
$5.3M
Top consensus positions
84 in listed consensus markets · 65 of 84 on the consensus side (77%)- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $24K · now 100¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $12K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $9.3K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will HYPE flip SOL by December 31?No $8.9K · now 97¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $7.6K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $4.7K · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Yes $4.2K · now 40¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (83% of 42)
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No $3.5K · now 92¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (91% of 22)
Specialties
1,244 settled consensus markets · held side won 85% at an average entry of 78¢- MMA
+16 pts
side won 91% of 385 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +10%
- Tennis
+13 pts
side won 87% of 62 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +6%
- Crypto
+5 pts
side won 92% of 169 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 76% of 25 at an average 81¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 12% of 81)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 49% of 69)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 68% of 151)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 97% of 943)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.