Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 84¢ · $630 held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$630.47
$48.8
80.3¢ → 83.5¢
+4% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
622h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 december | Noavg 81.3¢ | $406.5 | $421.5 | +$10.5 | 83% 129-27 (156) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12¢ | $74.09 | $96.94 | +$28.71 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
 LinaBell<$100 | Noavg 66.5¢ | $42.28 | $52.85 | +$10.56 | 64% 1197-678 (1875) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 81.9¢ | $33.15 | $34.14 | +$0.99 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Noavg 90¢ | $27.9 | $25.05 | -$1.96 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
decemberInvested
$406.5
Value
$421.5
PnL
+$10.5
Record
83%
129-27 (156)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$74.09
Value
$96.94
PnL
+$28.71
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
LinaBell<$100Invested
$42.28
Value
$52.85
PnL
+$10.56
Record
64%
1197-678 (1875)
Invested
$33.15
Value
$34.14
PnL
+$0.99
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$27.9
Value
$25.05
PnL
-$1.96
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.