Consensus PnL $43K · win rate 86% (119–20, n=139) · hand-picked wallet · holds 5 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$43.2K
Record
119W / 20L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 139 settled
Batting Avg
47.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#317
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
3,678
Markets
188
Volume
$3.4M
Top consensus positions
5 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 5 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $18K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (83% of 48)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.9K · now 95¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Yes $1.1K · now 55¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (80% of 7)
- Will Ho Hsin-chun win the next Taichung Mayor election?No $422 · now 84¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
Specialties
175 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 87¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 100% of 43 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
- Economy
+2 pts
side won 96% of 24 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 97% of 31 at an average 98¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 0% of 19)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 0% of 1)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 99% of 155)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.