Will Hunter Biden announce a Presidential run before 2027?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.2K
$71
91.5¢ → 95.3¢
+4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
3664h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AV aviato | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$63.18 | 84% 2440-449 (2889) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 94.7¢ | $24.2 | $592.24 | +$5.24 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
QM QMG-CORE<$100 | Noavg 93.8¢ | $83.14 | $84.53 | +$1.39 | 77% 1408-416 (1824) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $14.66 | $14.88 | +$0.22 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
TR Trump2028<$100 | Noavg 87.6¢ | $10.51 | $11.48 | +$0.97 | 82% 402-89 (491) |
Invested
$1,450.13
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$63.18
Record
84%
2440-449 (2889)
Invested
$24.2
Value
$592.24
PnL
+$5.24
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$83.14
Value
$84.53
PnL
+$1.39
Record
77%
1408-416 (1824)
Talophex<$100Invested
$14.66
Value
$14.88
PnL
+$0.22
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
Invested
$10.51
Value
$11.48
PnL
+$0.97
Record
82%
402-89 (491)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.