Consensus PnL $365K · win rate 86% (322–53, n=375) · PM monthly #680 · holds 13 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$364.8K
Record
322W / 53L
Win Rate
86.0%
of 375 settled
Batting Avg
84.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#315
Source
PM monthly #680 + pinned
Trades
18,676
Markets
534
Volume
$19.0M
Top consensus positions
13 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 13 on the consensus side (100%)- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $166K · now 89¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No $29K · now 87¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (52% of 26)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $29K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
- Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?No $26K · now 92¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (78% of 18)
- Will the Democrats win the Arizona governor race in 2026?Yes $18K · now 93¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 17)
- Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026?Yes $11K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?No $8.1K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (88% of 16)
- Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?No $3.2K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
Specialties
461 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 88¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 7% of 27 · avg entry 4¢
ROI +3%
- Elections
+4 pts
side won 98% of 60 · avg entry 94¢
ROI +4%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 100% of 72 · avg entry 98¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 95% of 62 at an average 95¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 11% of 35)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 40% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 1%(won 100% of 3)
- 70¢ and up: 90%(won 98% of 413)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.