Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 86¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$2.7K
$117.75
82¢ → 86¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
651h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PH phdcapital | Noavg 84¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$50 | 94% 259-17 (276) |
C0 C03B | Noavg 88.2¢ | $670.68 | $658.02 | -$12.66 | 85% 719-126 (845) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 52¢ | $130.96 | $198.29 | +$66.23 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 solwizzo-onX<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $62 | $86.5 | +$24.5 | 67% 347-174 (521) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.5¢ | $25.85 | $15.53 | -$10.32 | 62% 795-491 (1286) |
Invested
$1,680
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$50
Record
94%
259-17 (276)
Invested
$670.68
Value
$658.02
PnL
-$12.66
Record
85%
719-126 (845)
Invested
$130.96
Value
$198.29
PnL
+$66.23
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
solwizzo-onX<$100Invested
$62
Value
$86.5
PnL
+$24.5
Record
67%
347-174 (521)
Invested
$25.85
Value
$15.53
PnL
-$10.32
Record
62%
795-491 (1286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.