Consensus PnL $59K · win rate 94% (240–16, n=256) · hand-picked wallet · holds 48 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$58.8K
Record
240W / 16L
Win Rate
94.0%
of 256 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#169
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
4,555
Markets
328
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
48 in listed consensus markets · 47 of 48 on the consensus side (98%)- Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Yes $19K · now 97¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (74% of 34)
- Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?No $13K · now 97¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 97¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?No $9.7K · now 96¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (79% of 28)
- Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?No $9.6K · now 96¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (81% of 31)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?No $7.3K · now 97¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?No $7.1K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (80% of 25)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $6.7K · now 90¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
Specialties
258 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 91¢- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 100% of 191 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +9%
- Finance
+9 pts
side won 100% of 54 · avg entry 91¢
ROI +9%
- Economy
+7 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 100% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 96%(won 100% of 247)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.