Consensus PnL $297K · win rate 87% (689–100, n=789) · PM monthly #466 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$297.3K
Record
689W / 100L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 789 settled
Batting Avg
64.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#290
Source
PM monthly #466
Trades
469
Markets
922
Volume
$18.5M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 9 on the consensus side (100%)- Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $8.8K · now 74¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $5.3K · now 71¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (88% of 9)
- Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?No $4.9K · now 83¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (67% of 24)
- Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $3.1K · now 26¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?Yes $1.9K · now 26¢ · in at 32¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $60 by December 31, 2026?No $658 · now 87¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will Hyperliquid dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?No $638 · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (88% of 8)
- Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Yes $601 · now 73¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
Specialties
798 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 89¢- Finance
+6 pts
side won 93% of 411 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+3 pts
side won 82% of 124 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +1%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 97% of 32 · avg entry 94¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Other Sports — held side won 92% of 50 at an average 94¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 6%(won 16% of 51)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 70% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 5%(won 68% of 38)
- 70¢ and up: 88%(won 99% of 699)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.