Will Indiana Hoosiers win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 92¢ · $533 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$533.19
$74.63
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
708h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 90.1¢ | $1.2K | $363.81 | +$46.55 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
88 881112CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $75.4 | $72.92 | -$1.98 | 38% 567-944 (1511) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.4¢ | $23.5 | $56.73 | +$33.23 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8.7¢ | $28 | $29.4 | +$1.4 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
EA EatprayloveCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $14.89 | $10.33 | -$4.57 | 57% 766-585 (1351) |
Invested
$1,193.79
Value
$363.81
PnL
+$46.55
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$75.4
Value
$72.92
PnL
-$1.98
Record
38%
567-944 (1511)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$23.5
Value
$56.73
PnL
+$33.23
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$28
Value
$29.4
PnL
+$1.4
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$14.89
Value
$10.33
PnL
-$4.57
Record
57%
766-585 (1351)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.