Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 1.7¢ · $3K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$3.3K
$-1.3K
2.3¢ → 1.7¢
-29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
14 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WA wan123CTR | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $3.9K | $2.8K | $-1.1K | 39% 196-304 (500) |
CO cocococococoCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $324.32 | $254.82 | -$69.5 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
 BeneGesseritVoiceCTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $381.5 | $239.25 | -$142.23 | 69% 1138-518 (1656) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.9¢ | $8 | $8.25 | +$0.25 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
 CosmicCedarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $1.17 | $6.44 | +$5.27 | 60% 798-532 (1330) |
Invested
$3,913.97
Value
$2.8K
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
Invested
$324.32
Value
$254.82
PnL
-$69.5
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
BeneGesseritVoiceCTRInvested
$381.5
Value
$239.25
PnL
-$142.23
Record
69%
1138-518 (1656)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$8
Value
$8.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
CosmicCedarCTR<$100Invested
$1.17
Value
$6.44
PnL
+$5.27
Record
60%
798-532 (1330)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.