Consensus PnL $970K · win rate 35% (97–179, n=276) · PM monthly #244 · holds 68 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$969.9K
Record
97W / 179L
Win Rate
35.0%
of 276 settled
Batting Avg
73.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2153
Source
PM monthly #244 + pinned
Trades
30,898
Markets
590
Volume
$18.7M
Top consensus positions
68 in listed consensus markets · 47 of 68 on the consensus side (69%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $280K · now 65¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $181K · now 70¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $138K · now 56¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?No $106K · now 99¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (81% of 47)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $102K · now 77¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $82K · now 96¢ · in at 41¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $58K · now 56¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (59% of 34)
- Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?No $39K · now 48¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (39% of 57)
Specialties
158 settled consensus markets · held side won 100% at an average entry of 58¢- NFL
+53 pts
side won 100% of 27 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +54%
- Geopolitics
+43 pts
side won 100% of 56 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +48%
- NBA
+59 pts
side won 100% of 11 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +58%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 100% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 32%(won 100% of 51)
- 50–70¢: 24%(won 100% of 38)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 52)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.