Consensus PnL $108K · win rate 70% (880–384, n=1264) · was PM monthly #598 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$108.0K
Record
880W / 384L
Win Rate
70.0%
of 1264 settled
Batting Avg
61.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#738
Source
PM monthly #598 + pinned
Trades
24,619
Markets
1,823
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 5 of 9 on the consensus side (56%)- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $4.0K · now 45¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?No $1.2K · now 59¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (47% of 17)
- Will Indiana Pacers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $239 · now 2¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Yes $211 · now 3¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?No $162 · now 16¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $100 · now 11¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (80% of 45)
- NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Yes $63 · now 12¢ · in at 29¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes $13 · now 94¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (72% of 25)
Specialties
1,388 settled consensus markets · held side won 71% at an average entry of 69¢- Crypto
+13 pts
side won 94% of 36 · avg entry 81¢
ROI +19%
- Mentions
+5 pts
side won 74% of 390 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 77% of 175 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 72% of 253 at an average 74¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 11% of 217)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 39% of 135)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 60% of 201)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 94% of 835)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.