Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.1K
$67.2
85.3¢ → 89¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
483h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
62 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MEPP | Noavg 85.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.5K | +$97.72 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
MU muddyrc | Noavg 88.3¢ | $566.91 | $571.6 | +$4.69 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
M2 M2sx92kljs42<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $22 | $48.95 | +$26.95 | 73% 350-129 (479) |
0X 0xcCa90A5D3C8F2d6663817E3650D6aDbe9aB44C9f-1772395966516CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $51.8 | $14.91 | -$36.89 | 49% 112-118 (230) |
 ScottyNoooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.1¢ | $35.91 | $10.64 | -$25.27 | 50% 1537-1513 (3050) |
MEPPInvested
$2,394.35
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$97.72
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
Invested
$566.91
Value
$571.6
PnL
+$4.69
Record
51%
230-218 (448)
Invested
$22
Value
$48.95
PnL
+$26.95
Record
73%
350-129 (479)
Invested
$51.8
Value
$14.91
PnL
-$36.89
Record
49%
112-118 (230)
ScottyNoooCTR<$100Invested
$35.91
Value
$10.64
PnL
-$25.27
Record
50%
1537-1513 (3050)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.