Consensus PnL $62K · win rate 65% (197–106, n=303) · PM monthly #569 · holds 34 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$62.5K
Record
197W / 106L
Win Rate
65.0%
of 303 settled
Batting Avg
79.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#933
Source
PM monthly #569 + pinned
Trades
7,185
Markets
577
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
34 in listed consensus markets · 29 of 34 on the consensus side (85%)- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31No $14K · now 91¢ · in at 33¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $9.5K · now 66¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?No $8.6K · now 58¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No $8.5K · now 99¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?No $7.7K · now 71¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No $7.7K · now 73¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (57% of 22)
- Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?No $7.1K · now 69¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (58% of 38)
- Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?No $6.7K · now 91¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
400 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 71¢- Geopolitics
+13 pts
side won 84% of 256 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +13%
- Politics
+2 pts
side won 81% of 54 · avg entry 79¢
ROI −1%
- Tech
+7 pts
side won 73% of 15 · avg entry 66¢
ROI −7%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 10% of 51)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 50% of 24)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 82% of 49)
- 70¢ and up: 69%(won 95% of 276)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.