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CC
Consensus PnL -$9.4K · win rate 45% (79–98, n=177) · hand-picked wallet · holds 14 consensus positions
0xcca90a5d...9ab44c9fPolymarket
⚖️Arb🔄Contrarian🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$-9.4K
Record
79W / 98L
Win Rate
45.0%
of 177 settled
Batting Avg
68.8%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1986
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
4,852
Markets
269
Volume
$488.6K
Top consensus positions
14 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 14 on the consensus side (50%)- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?No $27K · now 93¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (60% of 15)
- Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?No $4.5K · now 74¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (36% of 12)
- Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Yes $4.0K · now 86¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (87% of 47)
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Yes $1.4K · now 12¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (No)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes $406 · now 14¢ · in at 32¢against the consensus (No)
- US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Yes $302 · now 4¢ · in at 9¢against the consensus (No)
- UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?Yes $285 · now 10¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
- Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?No $162 · now 93¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (65% of 17)
Specialties
101 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 56¢- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 64% of 80 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 33% of 18)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 50% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 37%(won 68% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 32%(won 97% of 32)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.