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5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$3.3K
$541.9
78¢ → 93.5¢
+20% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 siick | Noavg 75.2¢ | $1.9K | $2.2K | +$436.71 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
 4751346 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $711.57 | $794.16 | +$82.59 | 72% 1257-483 (1740) |
SI simpleman | Noavg 85¢ | $170 | $187 | +$17 | 47% 456-520 (976) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $42.84 | $47.69 | +$4.85 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $2.7 | $3.46 | +$0.76 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
siickInvested
$1,864.25
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$436.71
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
4751346Invested
$711.57
Value
$794.16
PnL
+$82.59
Record
72%
1257-483 (1740)
Invested
$170
Value
$187
PnL
+$17
Record
47%
456-520 (976)
Invested
$42.84
Value
$47.69
PnL
+$4.85
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$3.46
PnL
+$0.76
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.