Consensus PnL $95K · win rate 57% (503–385, n=888) · hand-picked wallet · holds 53 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$95.5K
Record
503W / 385L
Win Rate
57.0%
of 888 settled
Batting Avg
68.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1331
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
27,169
Markets
1,569
Volume
$3.0M
Top consensus positions
53 in listed consensus markets · 40 of 53 on the consensus side (75%)- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?No $5.6K · now 48¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (30% of 10)
- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $5.2K · now 4¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (95% of 22)
- Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $5.0K · now 38¢ · in at 39¢with the consensus (78% of 39)
- Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $4.7K · now 84¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (73% of 49)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $4.4K · now 35¢ · in at 38¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $2.5K · now 6¢ · in at 5¢with the consensus (97% of 32)
- JD Vance out as VP by December 31?No $2.4K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Jake Paul announce a run for public office in 2026?No $2.2K · now 94¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
Specialties
1,032 settled consensus markets · held side won 69% at an average entry of 56¢- MMA
+16 pts
side won 67% of 213 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +21%
- Geopolitics
+12 pts
side won 73% of 449 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +4%
- NHL
+14 pts
side won 64% of 94 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +17%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 42% of 19 at an average 49¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 20%(won 23% of 208)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 58% of 146)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 73% of 310)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 95% of 368)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.