Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $765 held · ended Sep 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$764.61
-$126.03
99.7¢ → 99.9¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+15 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
32 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.8¢ | $598.12 | $598.49 | +$0.37 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 99.4¢ | $154.81 | $155.92 | +$1.1 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Yes | $4.7 | $4.7 | -$82.31 | 53% 3725-3239 (6964) |
 nicoco89CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $47.9 | $3.33 | -$44.57 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $2.5 | $1.88 | -$0.63 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$598.12
Value
$598.49
PnL
+$0.37
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
Invested
$154.81
Value
$155.92
PnL
+$1.1
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$82.31
Record
53%
3725-3239 (6964)
nicoco89CTR<$100Invested
$47.9
Value
$3.33
PnL
-$44.57
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.5
Value
$1.88
PnL
-$0.63
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.