Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 56% (3313–2630, n=5943) · was PM monthly #356 · holds 22 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.8K
Record
3313W / 2630L
Win Rate
56.0%
of 5943 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1376
Source
PM monthly #356
Trades
306
Markets
6,953
Volume
$396.7K
Top consensus positions
22 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 22 on the consensus side (36%)- Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?No $2.2K · now 23¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democrats win the South Carolina governor race in 2026?No $86 · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $52 · now 55¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (50% of 26)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?No $28 · now 56¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party win the TX-23 House seat?No $27 · now 53¢ · in at 58¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?No $24 · now 46¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on November 1?No $19 · now 37¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $12 · now 27¢ · in at 27¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
1,257 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 60¢- Crypto
+33 pts
side won 99% of 647 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +33%
- Soccer
+11 pts
side won 77% of 172 · avg entry 65¢
ROI 0%
- Weather
+11 pts
side won 65% of 141 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +21%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 47% of 17 at an average 51¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI +14%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 30% of 261)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 87% of 196)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 90% of 221)
- 70¢ and up: 46%(won 98% of 579)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.