Will João Pedro (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$2.4K
$352.55
84.8¢ → 96.5¢
+14% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
502h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x16cbe223607a6513ae76d1e3751c78e4eabc2704 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$215.22 | 60% 1348-884 (2232) |
 probability | Noavg 81.8¢ | $494.58 | $486.17 | +$113.9 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
TO Tobias1909 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $374.71 | $398.26 | +$23.54 | 57% 395-298 (693) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $52.44 | $47.2 | -$0.39 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $1.46 | $1.74 | +$0.28 | 51% 2516-2391 (4907) |
Invested
$1,232.2
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$215.22
Record
60%
1348-884 (2232)
probabilityInvested
$494.58
Value
$486.17
PnL
+$113.9
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$374.71
Value
$398.26
PnL
+$23.54
Record
57%
395-298 (693)
Invested
$52.44
Value
$47.2
PnL
-$0.39
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
Invested
$1.46
Value
$1.74
PnL
+$0.28
Record
51%
2516-2391 (4907)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.