Consensus PnL $337K · win rate 80% (1022–257, n=1279) · was PM monthly #979 · holds 45 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$336.6K
Record
1022W / 257L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 1279 settled
Batting Avg
58.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#431
Source
PM monthly #979
Trades
7,438
Markets
2,402
Volume
$7.2M
Top consensus positions
45 in listed consensus markets · 32 of 45 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $11K · now 100¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (81% of 21)
- Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?No $2.9K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will João Pedro (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?No $1.4K · now 97¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseNo $1.3K · now 28¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1.3K · now 73¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (75% of 80)
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseNo $994 · now 99¢ · in at 97¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $925 · now 72¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (68% of 69)
- Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $825 · now 17¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
1,358 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 71¢- Soccer
+27 pts
side won 92% of 777 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +14%
- F1
+19 pts
side won 95% of 155 · avg entry 76¢
ROI −13%
- Tennis
+13 pts
side won 98% of 86 · avg entry 85¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 50% of 14 at an average 80¢ entry (−30 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 60% of 150)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 85% of 163)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 93% of 192)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 98% of 853)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.