Consensus PnL $20K · win rate 69% (416–183, n=599) · was PM monthly #912 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$19.6K
Record
416W / 183L
Win Rate
69.0%
of 599 settled
Batting Avg
61.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#781
Source
PM monthly #912
Trades
700
Markets
777
Volume
$1.6M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 7 on the consensus side (43%)- Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?No $8.6K · now 73¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?No $3.7K · now 90¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (65% of 37)
- Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 Serie A Championship?Yes $3.1K · now 53¢ · in at 54¢against the consensus (No)
- Will João Pedro (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?No $398 · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $397 · now 27¢ · in at 21¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?Yes $5 · now 0¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Yes $1 · now 0¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (79% of 14)
Specialties
536 settled consensus markets · held side won 89% at an average entry of 71¢- Tennis
+26 pts
side won 87% of 220 · avg entry 61¢
ROI +35%
- F1
+19 pts
side won 94% of 68 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +24%
- NHL
+22 pts
side won 84% of 43 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 43% of 35)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 79% of 89)
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 87% of 135)
- 70¢ and up: 52%(won 98% of 277)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.