Consensus PnL $129K · win rate 66% (172–90, n=262) · PM monthly #128 · holds 23 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$129.3K
Record
172W / 90L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 262 settled
Batting Avg
61.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#896
Source
PM monthly #128
Trades
945
Markets
414
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
23 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 23 on the consensus side (83%)- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?No $18K · now 88¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (36% of 22)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?Yes $16K · now 99¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No $15K · now 89¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (23% of 22)
- Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $11K · now 99¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?Yes $9.3K · now 94¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 5?Yes $4.0K · now 91¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Ra'am win 8 or more seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?Yes $3.9K · now 99¢ · in at 20¢with the consensus (89% of 9)
- Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?No $3.3K · now 93¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
Specialties
329 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 71¢- Elections
+22 pts
side won 88% of 17 · avg entry 66¢
ROI +48%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 83% of 211 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +6%
- Tech
+3 pts
side won 77% of 13 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +20%
Weakest: Finance — held side won 78% of 18 at an average 79¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI +12%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 15%(won 4% of 48)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 43% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 67% of 33)
- 70¢ and up: 71%(won 93% of 234)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.