Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Julieta Ramírez Padilla win the 2027 Baja California Governor Election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 29¢ · $604 held · ends Jun 7, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$603.98
-$19.62
53.3¢ → 28.7¢
-46% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
1308h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
9 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 56.3¢ | $422.6 | $267.23 | -$155.37 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 65¢ | $12.98 | $241.72 | +$134.41 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
 archaic<$100 | Yesavg 70.5¢ | $71.56 | $64.89 | -$6.68 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 26.5¢ | $17.49 | $23.13 | +$6.2 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 26¢ | $5.2 | $7.01 | +$1.81 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$422.6
Value
$267.23
PnL
-$155.37
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$12.98
Value
$241.72
PnL
+$134.41
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
archaic<$100Invested
$71.56
Value
$64.89
PnL
-$6.68
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Invested
$17.49
Value
$23.13
PnL
+$6.2
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$7.01
PnL
+$1.81
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
28.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.