Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Konsta Helenius win the 2026-27 Calder Trophy?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.6¢ · $335 held · ends Apr 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
4
Yes 100%
$335.12
-$14.69
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO northstockCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $33.95 | $165.63 | -$7.29 | 40% 256-391 (647) |
CR crckrCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $31.84 | $164.87 | -$6.8 | 31% 740-1614 (2354) |
GO god83743894CTR<$100 | Yes | $4.29 | $4.29 | -$0.25 | 43% 10696-14195 (24891) |
0X 0xb0e74DF9430A089Aa102e2207Af5fde1967439D2-1789545517033CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $0.68 | $0.33 | -$0.35 | 46% 6419-7653 (14072) |
Invested
$33.95
Value
$165.63
PnL
-$7.29
Record
40%
256-391 (647)
Invested
$31.84
Value
$164.87
PnL
-$6.8
Record
31%
740-1614 (2354)
Invested
$4.29
Value
$4.29
PnL
-$0.25
Record
43%
10696-14195 (24891)
Invested
$0.68
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.35
Record
46%
6419-7653 (14072)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.