Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Kuo Hsi win the next Taipei Mayor election?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $26 held · ends Nov 29
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$26.14
$-1.7K
3.3¢ → 0.1¢
-98% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
318h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL alex20011CTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $844.93 | $12.88 | -$832.05 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
 balthazarCTR | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $781.31 | $11.72 | -$769.59 | 61% 21342-13633 (34975) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $97.76 | $1.47 | -$96.29 | 45% 1905-2348 (4253) |
0X 0x0E7Fa09bF44514634293b5ecC2420C50ABCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $3.96 | $0.06 | -$3.9 | 58% 108-79 (187) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.01 | $0.01 | -$0.5 | 50% 356-357 (713) |
Invested
$844.93
Value
$12.88
PnL
-$832.05
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
balthazarCTRInvested
$781.31
Value
$11.72
PnL
-$769.59
Record
61%
21342-13633 (34975)
Invested
$97.76
Value
$1.47
PnL
-$96.29
Record
45%
1905-2348 (4253)
Invested
$3.96
Value
$0.06
PnL
-$3.9
Record
58%
108-79 (187)
Invested
$0.01
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.5
Record
50%
356-357 (713)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.