Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.6K
$33.54
88.5¢ → 95.5¢
+8% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Late
3790h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 MEPP | Noavg 94¢ | $934.13 | $949.03 | +$14.91 | 64% 633-352 (985) |
KR Krass | Noavg 73.2¢ | $283.39 | $369.66 | +$86.28 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 archaic | Noavg 91.6¢ | $149.99 | $156.34 | +$6.35 | 85% 1906-339 (2245) |
 Marco-RubioCTR | Yesavg 7.6¢ | $136.66 | $81.31 | -$55.34 | 53% 489-440 (929) |
 Trading4FridgeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $24.65 | $6 | -$18.65 | 58% 928-661 (1589) |
MEPPInvested
$934.13
Value
$949.03
PnL
+$14.91
Record
64%
633-352 (985)
Invested
$283.39
Value
$369.66
PnL
+$86.28
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
archaicInvested
$149.99
Value
$156.34
PnL
+$6.35
Record
85%
1906-339 (2245)
Marco-RubioCTRInvested
$136.66
Value
$81.31
PnL
-$55.34
Record
53%
489-440 (929)
Trading4FridgeCTR<$100Invested
$24.65
Value
$6
PnL
-$18.65
Record
58%
928-661 (1589)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.