Consensus PnL $76K · win rate 54% (355–301, n=656) · hand-picked wallet · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$76.2K
Record
355W / 301L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 656 settled
Batting Avg
60.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1508
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
9,116
Markets
1,129
Volume
$1.3M
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 4 of 7 on the consensus side (57%)- Iran Nuke before 2027?No $9.6K · now 96¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (88% of 25)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $4.8K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $4.4K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?Yes $1.4K · now 14¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31Yes $406 · now 9¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Yes $81 · now 5¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $43 · now 10¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (94% of 36)
Specialties
830 settled consensus markets · held side won 46% at an average entry of 42¢- Geopolitics
+7 pts
side won 57% of 538 · avg entry 49¢
ROI +5%
- Mentions
+2 pts
side won 18% of 108 · avg entry 15¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+8 pts
side won 47% of 32 · avg entry 39¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 18% of 89 at an average 22¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 10% of 407)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 40% of 80)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 81% of 93)
- 70¢ and up: 30%(won 96% of 250)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.