Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 43¢ · $3K held · ends Jun 15, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.1K
-$219.81
47.6¢ → 42.5¢
-11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
724h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 42.5¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$214.94 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 SocialistaCTR | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $2.4K | $1.2K | -$564.67 | 63% 2726-1612 (4338) |
OR OrwellFactory | Noavg 26¢ | $100.59 | $289.43 | +$188.84 | 57% 352-262 (614) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 56.5¢ | $242.53 | $193.12 | -$49.42 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 Porx<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $61 | $51.5 | -$9.5 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
Invested
$1,207.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$214.94
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
SocialistaCTRInvested
$2,376.78
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$564.67
Record
63%
2726-1612 (4338)
Invested
$100.59
Value
$289.43
PnL
+$188.84
Record
57%
352-262 (614)
Invested
$242.53
Value
$193.12
PnL
-$49.42
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Porx<$100Invested
$61
Value
$51.5
PnL
-$9.5
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.