Consensus PnL $1.4K · win rate 59% (329–231, n=560) · was PM monthly #991 · holds 8 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.4K
Record
329W / 231L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 560 settled
Batting Avg
75.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1226
Source
PM monthly #991
Trades
205
Markets
665
Volume
$2.3M
Top consensus positions
8 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 8 on the consensus side (38%)- Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Mexican Grand Prix?No $3.0K · now 85¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 82¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (50% of 48)
- Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-11-03?No $1.4K · now 59¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes $363 · now 73¢ · in at 78¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 La Liga season?No $334 · now 61¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes $280 · now 56¢ · in at 63¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $249 · now 6¢ · in at 7¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Yes $37 · now 20¢ · in at 20¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
559 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 58¢- F1
+6 pts
side won 74% of 74 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +15%
- NBA
+9 pts
side won 56% of 39 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +6%
- Geopolitics
+6 pts
side won 87% of 15 · avg entry 80¢
ROI +1%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 20% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 23%(won 38% of 128)
- 50–70¢: 32%(won 67% of 180)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 83% of 185)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.