Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Labaron Philon Jr. win the 2026-27 NBA Rookie of the Year?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.3¢ · $194 held · ends May 31, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, May 31, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$193.96

Combined PnL

-$371.18

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$137.96

Total Shares368

Combined PnL-$411.19

No2 traders

Total Value$56

Total Shares90

Combined PnL+$40.01

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AN ancianoCTR	Yes	$930.1	$71.24	-$447.41	54% 1464-1226 (2690)
HaradwaithCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.1¢	$3.34	$40.26	+$36.91	40% 6547-9828 (16375)
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$61.14	$31	+$35.39	72% 13903-5480 (19383)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.65	$26.47	-$0.69	27% 2536-6889 (9425)
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 99.8¢	$134.52	$25	+$4.62	54% 12531-10868 (23399)

ancianoCTR

Yes

Invested

$930.1

Value

$71.24

PnL

-$447.41

Record

54%

1464-1226 (2690)

HaradwaithCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.34

Value

$40.26

PnL

+$36.91

Record

40%

6547-9828 (16375)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$61.14

Value

$31

PnL

+$35.39

Record

72%

13903-5480 (19383)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.65

Value

$26.47

PnL

-$0.69

Record

27%

2536-6889 (9425)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$134.52

Value

$25

PnL

+$4.62

Record

54%

12531-10868 (23399)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Late

88h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

4 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.3%

0.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7523.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

7623.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.