Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $710 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$709.77
-$403.09
0.3¢ → 0.1¢
-45% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
10 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $714.79 | $485.27 | -$229.52 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $167.66 | $125.75 | -$41.92 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
 debasedCTR | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $187.57 | $93.78 | -$93.78 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.9¢ | $28.12 | $2.87 | -$33.54 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
11 11122CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $6.43 | $2.1 | -$4.33 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$714.79
Value
$485.27
PnL
-$229.52
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$167.66
Value
$125.75
PnL
-$41.92
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
debasedCTRInvested
$187.57
Value
$93.78
PnL
-$93.78
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$28.12
Value
$2.87
PnL
-$33.54
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$6.43
Value
$2.1
PnL
-$4.33
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.