Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (97%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 2.8¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 100%
$1.7K
$72.27
2.6¢ → 2.8¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 3%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 97%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
223h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE leegunnerCTR | Yesavg 3¢ | $835.78 | $808.15 | -$68.39 | 41% 1281-1829 (3110) |
BA bawsCTR | Yesavg 2.1¢ | $413.38 | $570.86 | +$127.95 | 48% 30-32 (62) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 2.5¢ | $194.98 | $203.3 | +$8.31 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
 probabilityCTR | Yesavg 2.6¢ | $26 | $110.67 | +$4.81 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yes | $43.53 | $43.53 | -$0.42 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
Invested
$835.78
Value
$808.15
PnL
-$68.39
Record
41%
1281-1829 (3110)
Invested
$413.38
Value
$570.86
PnL
+$127.95
Record
48%
30-32 (62)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$194.98
Value
$203.3
PnL
+$8.31
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
probabilityCTRInvested
$26
Value
$110.67
PnL
+$4.81
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$43.53
Value
$43.53
PnL
-$0.42
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.