Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (69%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 32¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2029
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$7.3K
-$153.58
33.4¢ → 31.5¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 32%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 69%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Late
708h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
21 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xdc3E831cad | Noavg 65.8¢ | $2.7K | $2.8K | +$152.17 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $2.5K | $2.3K | -$149.27 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $1.8K | $1.7K | -$82.06 | 47% 85-95 (180) |
 DebosnysCTR | Yesavg 37.1¢ | $448.77 | $374.65 | -$74.12 | 89% 1868-225 (2093) |
 Tenebrus7<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $2.55 | $2.21 | -$0.31 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
0xdc3E831cadInvested
$2,732.18
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$152.17
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
Invested
$2,462.91
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$149.27
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
Invested
$1,805.35
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$82.06
Record
47%
85-95 (180)
DebosnysCTRInvested
$448.77
Value
$374.65
PnL
-$74.12
Record
89%
1868-225 (2093)
Tenebrus7<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$0.31
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.