Consensus PnL $78K · win rate 91% (1290–124, n=1414) · hand-picked wallet · holds 37 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$78.3K
Record
1290W / 124L
Win Rate
91.0%
of 1414 settled
Batting Avg
63.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#219
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
38,564
Markets
2,280
Volume
$25.3M
Top consensus positions
37 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 37 on the consensus side (76%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $28K · now 84¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $7.3K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No $6.2K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (86% of 22)
- Xi Jinping out before 2027?No $5.5K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (95% of 37)
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?No $5.5K · now 97¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (90% of 42)
- Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026?No $5.4K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (82% of 11)
- Trump out as President before 2027?No $4.9K · now 97¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No $2.9K · now 100¢ · in at 99¢with the consensus (59% of 22)
Specialties
1,855 settled consensus markets · held side won 91% at an average entry of 92¢- Other Sports
+2 pts
side won 90% of 29 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +1%
- Finance
+2 pts
side won 95% of 20 · avg entry 93¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 81% of 43 at an average 89¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 9% of 92)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 32% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 58% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 91%(won 98% of 1684)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.