Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (78%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Málaga be relegated from the 2026-27 LaLiga?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 23¢ · $154 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$153.56
-$35.79
28.3¢ → 22.5¢
-20% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 78%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR<$100 | Noavg 28.8¢ | $89.14 | $68.6 | -$18.99 | 57% 41427-31210 (72637) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Noavg 25¢ | $75 | $67.5 | -$7.5 | 41% 2310-3378 (5688) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Noavg 45¢ | $22.5 | $12 | -$10.5 | 64% 1168-661 (1829) |
GA Gaditima<$100 | Yesavg 56¢ | $3.36 | $4.56 | +$1.2 | 47% 8644-9781 (18425) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 24¢ | $0.9 | $0.9 | +$0 | 16% 415-2223 (2638) |
HaradwaithCTR<$100Invested
$89.14
Value
$68.6
PnL
-$18.99
Record
57%
41427-31210 (72637)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$75
Value
$67.5
PnL
-$7.5
Record
41%
2310-3378 (5688)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$12
PnL
-$10.5
Record
64%
1168-661 (1829)
Invested
$3.36
Value
$4.56
PnL
+$1.2
Record
47%
8644-9781 (18425)
Invested
$0.9
Value
$0.9
PnL
+$0
Record
16%
415-2223 (2638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
22.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.