Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (64%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Manchester City finish in the top 2 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 37¢ · $1K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
$1.3K
-$476.62
67.6¢ → 36.5¢
-46% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 64%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
543h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DavidShekelCTR | Yesavg 68.4¢ | $1.4K | $744.59 | -$650.99 | 58% 574-408 (982) |
JU justtryingtosurvive | Noavg 54.9¢ | $206.39 | $258.97 | +$52.59 | — 4-0 (4) |
 TimeTraveler | Noavg 28.3¢ | $29.45 | $171.98 | +$142.53 | 41% 2002-2836 (4838) |
DR Dreamwire<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $72.2 | $80.44 | +$8.23 | 82% 2891-620 (3511) |
 probability<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $57.66 | $74.24 | +$16.58 | 41% 1407-2028 (3435) |
GA GaditimaCTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $229.63 | $19.07 | -$45.55 | 48% 6864-7497 (14361) |
DavidShekelCTRInvested
$1,395.58
Value
$744.59
PnL
-$650.99
Record
58%
574-408 (982)
Invested
$206.39
Value
$258.97
PnL
+$52.59
Record
—
4-0 (4)
TimeTravelerInvested
$29.45
Value
$171.98
PnL
+$142.53
Record
41%
2002-2836 (4838)
Invested
$72.2
Value
$80.44
PnL
+$8.23
Record
82%
2891-620 (3511)
probability<$100Invested
$57.66
Value
$74.24
PnL
+$16.58
Record
41%
1407-2028 (3435)
Invested
$229.63
Value
$19.07
PnL
-$45.55
Record
48%
6864-7497 (14361)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.