Will Manchester City finish in the top 4 of the 2026-27 English Premier League season?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 54¢ · $2K held · ends May 30, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.9K
$938.17
26.3¢ → 54¢
+106% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Late
349h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probability | Noavg 30.2¢ | $531.02 | $870.45 | +$339.44 | 41% 1402-2011 (3413) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 12.6¢ | $213.69 | $597.21 | +$459.7 | 43% 468-621 (1089) |
JU justtryingtosurvive | Noavg 40¢ | $211.33 | $290.49 | +$73.88 | — 4-0 (4) |
DR Dreamwire | Noavg 32.7¢ | $84.63 | $139.6 | +$54.97 | 82% 2831-615 (3446) |
GA GaditimaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $30.43 | $33.71 | +$10.18 | 48% 6242-6898 (13140) |
probabilityInvested
$531.02
Value
$870.45
PnL
+$339.44
Record
41%
1402-2011 (3413)
Invested
$213.69
Value
$597.21
PnL
+$459.7
Record
43%
468-621 (1089)
Invested
$211.33
Value
$290.49
PnL
+$73.88
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$84.63
Value
$139.6
PnL
+$54.97
Record
82%
2831-615 (3446)
Invested
$30.43
Value
$33.71
PnL
+$10.18
Record
48%
6242-6898 (13140)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.