Will Manchester United reach the 2027 UEFA Champions League Round of 16?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 51¢ · $442 held · ends Feb 28, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$441.73
$19.77
59.3¢ → 50.5¢
-15% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
34h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Noavg 40.1¢ | $196.84 | $165.11 | +$92.27 | 41% 2124-3048 (5172) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.1¢ | $80.61 | $129.61 | +$92.77 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36¢ | $36 | $35.5 | -$0.5 | |
SC SchruteBucksCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $76 | $129 | +$53 | 56% 1942-1508 (3450) |
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 60.1¢ | $163.33 | $128.55 | -$34.78 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 59.5¢ | $15.41 | $14.84 | -$0.58 | 16% 373-1948 (2321) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Yesavg 35.3¢ | $10.34 | $4.24 | +$2.13 | 58% 21143-15371 (36514) |
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$196.84
Value
$165.11
PnL
+$92.27
Record
41%
2124-3048 (5172)
Both legs:
Invested
$76
Value
$129
PnL
+$53
Record
56%
1942-1508 (3450)
Invested
$163.33
Value
$128.55
PnL
-$34.78
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
Invested
$15.41
Value
$14.84
PnL
-$0.58
Record
16%
373-1948 (2321)
Invested
$10.34
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$2.13
Record
58%
21143-15371 (36514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.