Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration before 2027?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 89¢ · $574 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$573.61
-$22.64
87.2¢ → 89¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 87¢ | $277.53 | $283.91 | +$6.38 | 0% 0-41 (41) |
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $249.64 | $217.99 | -$31.65 | 4% 5-124 (129) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 88.1¢ | $60.08 | $60.72 | +$0.63 | — 9-2 (11) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $33 | $11 | +$2 | 49% 1493-1567 (3060) |
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.